A new vaccine risk tool aims to cut through the confusion surrounding immunisation by allowing users to see the risks of vaccines alongside the risks posed by the diseases they are designed to prevent. Launched in early August, the free “What’s the Risk?” tool visualises outcomes often described as “rare” or “uncommon” in a clear, side-by-side format.
The interactive resource was created by the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy together with Unbiased Science, a public health communication platform and podcast founded by public health scientist Jessica Steier. It arrives at a time of mixed messaging on vaccines, with public health officials and political figures frequently offering conflicting advice, leaving many people uncertain when confronted with vaccine myths.
What the tool covers
At present, users can examine measles and the MMR vaccine, as well as RSV alongside its vaccines and antibody products. More comparisons are set to be added over time. The tool also lets people weigh these against everyday life events, including deaths caused by drowning, car crashes, falls, bee or wasp stings and lightning strikes, helping to place certain risks in perspective.
To begin, users choose one of the suggested comparisons or build their own by selecting two options from the dropdown menus. Steier advised reading the “Before you compare: a few things to know” list at the top before scrolling to the results. It explains that the likelihood of what happens if you become infected differs from what happens if you are vaccinated, and depends on factors such as where you live, where you travel and how many people around you are vaccinated.
How to read the results
Scrolling down reveals two side-by-side light grey boxes. Each represents 100,000 people in the population indicated above the boxes in colour-coded bands. Comparisons are most reliable when the same population is used, so when two different age groups appear, the results should be treated as a rough sense of scale rather than a precise figure. These are population averages, and individual risk will depend on age, health status and lifestyle.
All figures are shown as an annual rate unless otherwise labelled. Because everyday risks are usually published as lifetime figures, those had to be converted for the tool. Within the grey boxes, coloured squares represent each risk and are sized according to the number of people affected. As Steier explained, “A very rare outcome shows up as a tiny speck and a common one as a large block.”
Each square is also colour-coded by severity. Red indicates serious outcomes, while dark grey indicates those considered mild or temporary. Hovering over or tapping a square reveals further details and links to the sources for the numbers displayed, giving users a way to check the underlying data for each comparison.
