AI data centre e-waste has been vastly underestimated, according to a new report warning that the scale of discarded hardware from the artificial intelligence boom could become far larger than previously projected. By 2050, the volume of waste could be enough to fill 23 million shipping containers, roughly enough 40-foot containers to circle the globe six times if lined up in a row.
The estimate is significantly higher than earlier studies because the authors factored in all the infrastructure required to support servers in data centres, rather than the servers alone. This broader scope offers a clearer picture of the junk that artificial intelligence leaves behind.
Why the New Estimate Is So Much Higher
Unlike previous assessments that focused on servers and GPUs, the report expands its count to include additional categories of equipment: power supply and distribution, cooling systems, backup power, and networking hardware. It also counts what it describes as AI Waste Contagion, a wide-ranging category incorporating everything from telecommunications infrastructure to personal devices likely to become obsolete and replaced earlier as a result of advances in AI.
The analysis expects 70,000 metric tonnes of e-waste per gigawatt of data centre capacity, citing a projection of total data centre capacity reaching up to 219GW by 2030. Considering AI-related electronic equipment retired between 2025 and 2050, the report concludes this will add up to between 395 and 617 million metric tonnes of e-waste by the middle of the century, or roughly 8.6 million to 13.1 million metric tonnes retired each year as a result of AI.
The Recycling Gap and Health Risks
Less than a quarter of the 68.3 million tonnes of e-waste created each year worldwide is formally collected and recycled. Most is ultimately dumped into so-called informal waste collection, where burning or burying equipment can expose workers and the local environment to toxic materials such as lead and chromium.
The United States, which has far more data centres than any other country, has yet to ratify the Basel Convention, established to limit the international trade of hazardous wastes. Investigations have found that US recyclers still ship e-waste abroad, where it often slips into backyard recycling. Millions of children forced to work or live nearby face health threats from that informal recycling.
The report predicts global e-waste will triple to up to 211 million metric tonnes a year by 2050, attributing about 15 to 20 percent of that total to artificial intelligence. A separate study published in 2024 predicted e-waste from AI could reach between 1.2 million and 5 million tonnes by 2030. Another study found that AI servers alone could create between 131,000 and 225,000 tonnes of e-waste annually by the end of the decade, an amount comparable to all the e-waste produced by a country the size of Denmark.
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Image: theverge.com
